OK folks, here's my year end market report for 2008. You read the papers and you watch the news. You hear all of the predictions and how bad things are. It's very depressing!!! BUT....Real Estate is very very local. This report is very specific to Poinciana Florida. It has nothing to do with real estate in other areas. Some areas are better and some areas are....well....let's just say some areas are better. If there are any that are worse please let me know. OK here goes...........
(INFO COMPILED FROM THE MID-FLORIDA REGIONAL MLS
SEARCH CRITERIA: ACTIVE 34758,34759 SUBDIVISION POIN)
|
2008 MONTH |
NUMBER OF CLOSINGS |
AVERAGE SALES PRICE |
MEDIAN SALES PRICE |
2007 MEDIAN SALES PRICE |
|
JANUARY |
20 |
$141,847 |
$137,000 |
$225,000 |
|
FEBRUARY |
26 |
$154,094 |
$152,000 |
$202,900 |
|
MARCH |
35 |
$137,403 |
$131,230 |
$196,000 |
|
APRIL |
31 |
$122,938 |
$120,000 |
$200,450 |
|
MAY |
50 |
$131,519 |
$126,750 |
$189,500 |
|
JUNE |
56 |
$122,597 |
$117,750 |
$199,000 |
|
JULY |
64 |
$119,091 |
$119,500 |
$172,951 |
|
AUGUST |
55 |
$106,455 |
$105,600 |
$179,250 |
|
SEPTEMBER |
66 |
$108,986 |
$105,000 |
$188,159 |
|
OCTOBER |
85 |
$94,721 |
$90,000 |
$187,548 |
|
NOVEMBER |
77 |
$91,627 |
$85,000 |
$182,450 |
|
DECEMBER |
107 |
$85,023 |
$82,900 |
$150,750 |
|
JAN-DEC MARKET TREND |
AVERAGE 56 MONTH MARKET TREND INCREASING |
DOWN 41% MARKET TREND RAPIDLY DECLINING |
DOWN 40% MARKET TREND RAPIDLY DECLINING |
24 MONTH CHANGE DOWN 63% MARKET TREND DECLINING
|
Commentary from Bryant Tutas
Broker/Owner
Tutas Towne Realty, Inc
I broke this analysis down to month by month in order to give you a true picture of what is going on in Poinciana Fl. Yearly averages will not work in a declining market. As you can see, the market in Poinciana is in dire straights. Properties ARE selling. In fact sales are increasing but......
There were 672 sales in 2008 compared with 420 in 2007. That's an increase of 38%. However, 519 of these closings, for 2008, were distressed sales(either bank owned REOs or short sales). That's 77%!!!
There are currently 1,051 active listings (single family homes) in the Poinciana neighborhoods. This time last year there were 1,065. Not much movement there.
The last 4 months we have averaged 87 closings. Using that figure there is currently 12.5 months of inventory on the market. That's pretty good since last year this time there were 25 months of inventory. Prices are low enough that properties ARE selling.
I find it incredible that the median price for homes sold in January of 2007 was $225,000 and 24 months later it's $82,900. That just boggles my mind. What's even worse is that the median price for houses that are under contract (pending) is $79,900. That means that prices are still declining.
What can you buy in Poinciana Florida for $79,900 today?
How about this 2113 sq ft banked owned property with 4 bedrooms and 2.5 baths built in 2006?
Or this 2093 sq ft REO with 4 bedrooms and 2 baths built in 2003?
If these won't work there are 308 more properties for less than $80,000.
Folks, this about sums it up. 2009 is going to be quite the ride. Foreclosures are going to increase and values are going to continue to decline. Unless you absolutely need to sell you property DON"T!!! If you must sell....call me.
If you are a buyer, you need to be buying. Prices are awesome and rates are low. If you are waiting on the bottom you may very well miss it. The only way we will know we have hit bottom is when it is in our rear view mirror.
So there you have it.... Broker Bryant's year end market report for Poinciana Florida. I showed you mine will you show me yours?
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Reserved Parking For "The Lovely Wife"...TLW...ROAR!
Hun...
Maybe we should be buying as well. You could probably get me to agree with you this time around :)
TLW...ROAR!
WOW! Your median price drop is what got my attention! That is frightening! I agree with you, though, about not selling if you don't have to, I tell people that every day. Thanks for the info.
Nice chart, Bryant. I've finally figured out a good (free) chart methodology for my updates.
Possibly another blog topic for you.......I'll leave it broad if you want to answer in a post.
What is the rental market like in Poinciana?
Yikes those are some down right scary stats when it comes to REO's! It is now wonder that prices are down and volume is up.
BB - WOW - Are you buying yet with these prices? Lakeland alone had a decline of 21% in home sales and the average sold price declined by 18% (avg. sold price $152,000) from the previous year.
Wow, the way you designed this report truly tells your story. The tremendous increase in sales makes one hopeful since your months of supply is now much improved. However, the average and median price sales numbers are staggering. I'm wondering how much of a barometer your market is for those of us still sitting on 25 months of supply? Clearly our prices will be going down. Fascinating but depressing too!
Bryant - All I can say about that chart is ouch. No wonder I get calls from other states thinking we sell homes for 70 percent of what they were last year. We haven't had that here, and I hope we never do. I'll send the bargain shoppers down to you.
I already created the chart, but I haven't posted my year-end report yet. But I see you have just over a year of inventory. That's really not bad. We had 2.3 years of inventory not long ago. Thankfully, our numbers are looking a lot better. But I still have to calculate the percentages. I think some of our cities are going to be better, and some oare going to be worse.
When will prices stop going down? This trend is pretty amazing.
What I didn't finish saying on my last comment ... pretty soon the banks will be paying the buyers just to get the inventory off their books!
Its a sad day for the American Homeowner to see his/her largest asset plummet like that. Though always there are two sides to the coin, what a great time for anyone looking to relocate to your area.
Bryant....great market report....I'm looking for creative ways to do market reports. I like the net out....but want it to be less data oriented....however...it's the data that counts. Nice job! Hello to TLW. I'll visit her soon. Been developing outside blogs for all my niche markets....slightly nuts lately. I miss everyone. Hopefully, I'm back to business as normal soon!
Geeze! Prices like these should start attracting buyers! It's got to be cheaper to buy than to rent!
BB-OUCH OUCH and OUCH. Seems like a gold mine to me for buyers. Now is obviously the time to buy. I'm with Patricia...who could afford to rent at these prices? I like your "tell it as it is" attitude. Buyers and sellers need to hear the truth. Way to go!
I am having such a difficult time actually wrapping my head around your market report. No, No I don't mean I don't understand it. I do suppose though I am feeling a bit sheltered as I only thought that things were not good in my area because the median value dropped 4.4% from 2007 to 2008. I hope all those buyers that are calling you start your market back in the right direction. Less on the market should help things. The one good trend I see is more sales.
Now is a good time to buy a second home down there for any snow birds.
Holy smokes, BB, your sales exploded throughout the year and continually rose. What a great market to sell in!
Wow! Those are some shocking figures. It is hard to believe prices have fallen so much. That first house you have featured (the 2-story). Now that is a steal. There is no way a builder could build a house like that and sell it for less than $150K or so. At $79,900 that would make a good investment. If only it were closer to me.
I love to see what's going on in other markets. It is exactly as you say "local". Looks like a great time to buy!
Bryant - Well, I hope the folks in DC are hearing your voice here! Numbers like these are frightening, especially the price decline. The typical note modification must have zero value here with price declines like these. Makes me want to raid what's left of our 401k/SEPs and come buy in your neck of the wood!
Bryant- We are working for half the money because the home prices have been slashed into half!
This is a buyer and investors' dream market!
We just got an approval for a sale price of 325K on a house that was bought for $800K (est.) and seller owes near 700K!!!! What a steal. This is a huge luxury home with over 4000 square feet!
In Port St Lucie- a great area to buy!
We just had to tell a lady today that we could not take her listing because it would cost us more to sell it than we would make. She owes 275K, one of those condo conversions, those got hit the hardest, and the last sold in her same building- 34k!!!!!!! at 2.5% that is about $750. Not even worth negotiating the short on it. She asked me if the market would go up to 100K in the next 5 years on that condo. No way it will, she is just going to have to walk away. It is an investment property but get this- the condo hoa fees are $368 per month, more than a mortgage payment would be! So from an investment stand point it is not even worth keeping. The rent still won't cover the expenses. WOWWW! That was the hardest thing for me to do. I wante to help her, but I have to draw the line at some point.
Thankfully our market is no where near in a decline as yours at this time. Not to say that we could not be headed there. Reading market reports from other areas helps put things in perspective.
BB, that's pretty bleak and there are a few more hurdles yet to clear. I'll take a closer look using your format and see how we've fared to this point. No more sugar coating, okay.
Absolutely Amazing! I remember looking in Florida in 2005. Bob and I would be crying if we'd made our move and paid the prices at that time compared to now. The company I'm currenly working for is based out of Longwood and I've teased Bob that if he really wanted to go to Florida, I could probably transfer down there. Anyway, great information as always.
Cyndi
Comments like "2nd home for snow birds" gives pause to whether the real estate industry "gets it". The shadow inventory of houses about to flood the market will only make matters worse. Any prudent homeowner with equity certainly isn't going into debt by buying another house. Rents, even in S.F. are down a record 12%....first time I can ever remember such a market. Sure, you can buy cheap and rent, but to whom?
I received an email from a FDIC Bank Examiner buddy of mine this week. He's in Detroit.....to close quite a few banks over the next several months. The funniest comment was from the cabbie who picked him up to take him to his hotel. "We'll make great time as there's no traffic anymore". And he wasn't exaggerating. Hardly hit the brake pedal the entire route.
Just this week a bank in UT closed and he said they could not find a buyer....period. First time in his career that happened. The FDIC is simply going to mail checks to depositors and try and sell the building. While he can't share specifics, I get the distinct impression this will become more the norm than anyone dreamed. I asked him what's next on the collapse list. Without hesitation...."Commercial real estate".
I have the highest respect for BB as he tells it like it is....but anyone who bought a "bargain" this time last year has lost almost, if not more, than those in the stock market.
All I ask is for real estate to get real and stop the cheerleading....it only diminishes an already tarnished public perception.
BB, your market is astonishing. These are the kind of updates that compel thoughts of living in a sunny place for $82k.
Bryant,
Depressing! How long will it take me to get back the equity loss experienced over the past 2 years? Oops, I forgot that you recently broke your crystal ball :)
Those look like great prices. Where has everyone gone? Have all the jobs dried up? How much can you rent one of those homes out for? When was the last time prices have been so low?