Selling Poinciana One Property at a Time.: Year End Market Report For Poinciana Fl

Year End Market Report For Poinciana Fl

http://buypoinciana.com
 

MARKET REPORT
POINCIANA NEIGHBORHOODS
SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
2007

(INFO COMPILED FROM THE MID-FLORIDA REGIONAL MLS
SEARCH CRITERIA: ACTIVE 34758,34759 SUBDIVISION POIN)

2007

MONTH

NUMBER

OF CLOSINGS

AVERAGE

SALES PRICE

MEDIAN

SALES PRICE

DAYS ON

MARKET

JANUARY

39

$221,968

$225,000

121

FEBRUARY

41

$205,024

$202,900

124

MARCH

45

$194,469

$196,000

112

APRIL

38

$204,795

$200,450

127

MAY

46

$194,461

$189,500

145

JUNE

32

$194,969

$199,000

112

JULY

34

$179,599

$172,951

151

AUGUST

32

$185,800

$179,250

174

SEPTEMBER

26

$197,099

$188,159

133

OCTOBER

30

$185,392

$187,548

151

NOVEMBER

24

$177,608

$182,450

95

DECEMBER

38

$162,680

$150,750

147

JAN-DEC

MARKET

TREND

AVERAGE

35 MONTH

MARKET

TREND

DECLINING

DOWN 27%

MARKET

TREND

RAPIDLY

DECLINING

DOWN 33%

MARKET TREND

RAPIDLY DECLINING

AVERAGE

132

MARKET TREND

INCREASING

 

Comments from Bryant Tutas
Broker/Owner
Tutas Towne Realty, Inc

OK folks, I broke this analysis down to month by month in order to give you a true picture of what is going on in Poinciana Fl. Yearly averages will not work in a declining market. As you can see, the market in Poinciana is in dire straights. Properties ARE selling but they have to be priced below recent sales and they have to be in very good condition.

There are currently 1,065 active listings (single family homes) in the Poinciana neighborhoods. This does not include Solivita, Lake Marion Golf Resorts, Cypress Woods, For Sale by Owner properties or properties listed with non-MLS members.

With an average of 35 sales per month we have a 30 month supply of inventory. What that means is, it would take 2.5 years to sell current inventory if no other properties were placed on the market. The absorption rate is right over 3%. That means 3% of the homes on the market are selling every month.

The MEDIAN sales price, in the chart above, means that half the properties sold for less and half sold for more than this amount. For example, in December there were 38 sales. 19 of these sold for less than $150,750.

Values are steadily declining and are down 27%-33% thus far, for an average decline of 30%. This means a house worth $200,000 in January is now worth approximately $140,000.

So where do we go from here? That's a good question and I truly wish I had a crystal ball so I could give you a precise answer. But I don't. But I can make an educated guess based on my 14 years experience with selling hundreds of properties in Poinciana Fl. So here goes.

Unfortunately, prices still need to come down about 10% to 15%. Once this happens inventory should start decreasing. Less inventory and lower prices will help us get back on track. I would be very surprised if this happens in 2008.

2008 is going to be a year of adjustment. Poinciana has one of the highest foreclosure rates in the State. It's my opinion that foreclosures are on the rise and Poinciana, especially the Polk county side, specifically Village 7, is going to be hit very hard. These foreclosures will drag our values down even further.

The average and the median sales price was $130,000 in 2004. That's where we are headed and that's where the market will start to balance out.

OK, that's it. I hope this helped give you some insight on the market in Poinciana Fl. Any questions?

Copyright © 2007 Broker Bryant Real Estate Ramblings | All Rights Reserved

 

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Comment balloon 32 commentsBryant Tutas • January 06 2008 02:40PM

Comments

Reserved Parking For "The Lovely Wife"...TLW...ROAR!

Blog Boy...

I hope you don't mind but I've decided that I like "The land of denial" :)

Now get off our Blog and go sell a house :)

TLW...ROAR!

Posted by "The Lovely Wife" (Broker Bryantnulls Wife) The One And Only TLW. (President-Tutas Towne Realty, Inc.) over 11 years ago
Wow!  That is a pretty sharp drop off in price.  Best of luck down there.
Posted by Matt Heaton (Timu Corp - CEO, ActiveRain - Co-founder) over 11 years ago
Bryant, just one question.  How much do you and TLW really love Poinciana?  Perhaps you could put your brokerage skills to use in another more rosy market!
Posted by Brian Block, Northern Virginia & D.C. Real Estate (RE/MAX Allegiance, Managing Broker/Branch Vice President) over 11 years ago

Brian, I have thought of that. But I have been selling in Poinciana for 14 years and business just comes to me. I do have to sell a lot of houses to make a good living though. Of course it helps that I'm the broker and my expenses are low since I work from my home. I have a good life.

Matt, Ya think?? I fear it's going to get a lot worse too. This year should be challenging.

TLW, I love the land of denial. Hey I here AR is hiring!

Posted by Bryant Tutas, Selling Florida one home at a time (Tutas Towne Realty, Inc and Garden Views Realty, LLC) over 11 years ago
Bryant- Like you, we have a good life. Being in one area so long and when business just comes to us and you, well, at my age I really don't want to start all this all over again! And this too shall pass! We have a town here next to Wellington, the acreage and Loxahatchee where all the properties are at least one acre lots. There is a 72 month supply of listings! In November, there were only 16 sold properties out of 1200 listings! So we know where you are coming from. Wellington is a bit more stable but there are certain subdivisions that are taking a huge beating! There are pockets of areas that are still very stable like the equestrian ranches, no pun intended. And county wide, the West Palm Beach condo market is healthy compared to Miami's disaster. In fact, the prices went up in WPB condos and new ones are selling. Also, anything on the water is in good shape if you can put your boat there. It is a hard thing for sellers to grasp, they look at us, why should the market have anything to do with our diamond? Well, we understand, of course we wish you could get what you want too! But that is not the current reality. Katerina
Posted by Katerina Gasset, Get It Done For Me Virtual Services (Get It Done For Me Virtual Services ) over 11 years ago
BB, You can always come back to your old stomping grounds in Myrtle Beach!
Posted by Kristin Small, REALTOR -GRI, Myrtle Beach Real Estate (RE/MAX Southern Shores) over 11 years ago

Blog Boy...

Don't even think about it...

I am not moving again :)

TLW...ROAR!

Posted by "The Lovely Wife" (Broker Bryantnulls Wife) The One And Only TLW. (President-Tutas Towne Realty, Inc.) over 11 years ago

Why don't you both come and do some a- kicking in New York?  Pretty please?

Posted by Laurie Mindnich over 11 years ago
Those average and median price drops are absolutely jawdropping numbers.  In 12 months the prices dropped to 2/3 of what they once were.  Scary.  Maybe you can pick up a few rental houses.
Posted by Rob Arnold, Metro Orlando Full Service - Investor Friendly & F (Sand Dollar Realty Group, Inc.) over 11 years ago
Bryant--Realistic numbers are essential for people to make decisions. Like it or not, you have to present what is out there. Those numbers are pretty ugly...Hopefully things will balance out sooner rather than later.
Posted by Teri Eckholm, REALTOR Serving Mpls/St Paul North & East Metro (Boardman Realty) over 11 years ago

Bryant,

You did a great job spelling it out in a way that everyone, professionals and consumers alike can understand your market.  Good job.

Posted by Fran Gatti, Managing Principal Broker - RE/MAX Integrity (RE/MAX Integrity) over 11 years ago

Ha ha, I like TLW's advice.

Great summary, BB. Folks (including the agents) need to know the truth about what is going on, no matter how ugly it may be. Wishing you the best in 2008 - perhaps things will start to improve slowly before too long.

Jeff 

Posted by Jeff Dowler, CRS, The Southern California Relocation Dude (Solutions Real Estate ) over 11 years ago

BB, What is the rental market like right now in Poinciana? With prices with 10 - 15% of the bottom, bottom prices should be able to be negotiated.

It sounds like a good time for investors to move in.

Bill Roberts

Posted by Bill Roberts, "Baby Boomer" Retirement Planner (Brooks and Dunphy Real Estate) over 11 years ago

I just did stats on one zip code in my area and it's down 14% for the year.  That's not enough to get folks out.  But, every little bit helps. 

I don't know if the continued drop in your area is desireable.  After a while, you just have to say, enough is enough. 

All I can say is you folks have to work awfully hard to make a living down there. 

I took three relocation buyers today, one for the $350K range, one for the $450K range and one for the $800K-$1M range.  I sent the first two out and kept the third.  I also showed a little $280K home in Lovettsville to a young first time home buyer. 

An agent doesn't have to sell a lot of homes in this area to make a decent living 

All in all, not a bad day for early January.  The leads are holding up. 

Posted by Lenn Harley, Real Estate Broker - Virginia & Maryland (Lenn Harley, Homefinders.com, MD & VA Homes and Real Estate) over 11 years ago
I am sure a lot of inexperienced and weak agents are leaving your market.
Posted by Randy Prothero, Hawaii REALTOR, (808) 384-5645 (eXp Realty) over 11 years ago
Where does the average buyer in Poinciana come from?  Are they full time residents?  Out of State owners who buy them as vacation property?  People who work at a local company?  I've always wondered since I've not heard of Poinciana.
Posted by ARDELL DellaLoggia (Better Properties Seattle ) over 11 years ago
Bryant, you finally have my interest. I think we need to talk from the standpoint of me being a buyer in your market. I'll call you on Monday as an investor client with a few questions.
Posted by Ken Cook, Content Marketer/Creator (Content, coding, marketing, host.) over 11 years ago
BB - Nice job of laying it out.  Not pretty, but true.  Bottom line, houses are still selling at the right price.  It takes brokers like yourself who analyze and study the market and tell the truth to get those homes priced right the first time.
Posted by Marlene Bridges, Laguna Homes|Laguna Condos|Laguna Real Estate (Village Real Estate Services, Inc.) over 11 years ago
Amazing.  The drop off is down right scary.  Do you still see homeowners in denial about what their home is worth?
Posted by Carol Spengel, Wheaton IL (Prudential Rubloff ) over 11 years ago

Reads very bad for Poinciana. The neighborhood needs more than just homes to turn things around. Local politicians should start talking about a reason to live there and what can be done to restore the community.

Very easy to read this post and well presented.

Posted by Concetta Pepenella-Timmons, Associate Broker (Remax Metro Staten Island, New York) over 11 years ago
I agree it should be month to month. A yearly average just doesn't cut it. What do people do work wise in Poinciana? Our downturn is due to  the automotive, but isn't Disney growing? Seriously, who are the major employers? We don't have a lot of foreclosure's here in Ann Arbor, but certain parts of Washtenaw County do. Pfizer leaving is what hurt Ann Arbor, announcing last Jan. I can't believe it has been a year almost.
Posted by Missy Caulk, Savvy Realtor - Ann Arbor Real Estate (Missy Caulk TEAM) over 11 years ago

Good morning everyone, I see you like my little report. It sure does give a dose of reality. I have a listing appointment this morning and this report will make a pretty strong case for proper pricing. Let me answer the questions that were asked.

Sellers in Poinciana saw the light about 5 months ago. Most are willing to price right and do understand the market. The problem is the majority of the sellers I speak with are upside down on the mortgage. Since I'm not actively listing short sales right now I have to weed through about 10 sellers to get 1 or 2 listings. There are many short sales on the market. The problem with them is unless they are priced very very low REALTORS(R) are not even showing them. Why should they? Buyers are hard to find and there are over 1,000 to choose from. They want to show and sell houses they know will close. Then of course when the short sale is listed low enough to get showings it's now too low for the lender to accept the short. So it will end up getting foreclosed on.

The rental market in Poinciana is just as bad. There are 100s of vacant homes (mostly new flips that flopped) that folks are trying to rent. Mortgages on these vacants are in the $1,500 to $2,000 range they may rent for $800 to $900. These too will be foreclosed on in due course. 

Poinciana is a working class neighborhood. It is the second fastest growing and I believe the second largest PUD in the country. We have almost 70,000. No government except the HOA. They just now started adding a lot of commercial sites but they are stores and restaurants not places for high paying jobs. In fact most of the folks that live in Poinciana do not work in Poinciana. They work in Orlando, Disney and other areas. It's a blue collar work force.

Folks move to Poinciana because it's affordable. Most only stay a few years. When prices were getting outrageous in 2005 Poinciana was swamped with "Investors" from S Florida and NY who were enticed by low prices and massive growth. The lure of easy money by purchasing new construction to flip was bring folks out of the wood work. They didn't know Poinciana was just a working class affordable neighborhood. All the investors saw was a new 2800 sq ft home for low 200s that would cost 500k in their area. What they didn't consider was who were they going to sell it to? 

Well for a very short period of time they were able to sell it to another "investor" who wanted to get into the game quickly without waiting for a house to be built. So they would jump in the market at high 200s. Now there would be NO end buyer in this price range. This teamed with tightening credit caused Poinciana to hit the proverbial wall in early 2007.

The rest........well, the chart tells the story.

I am accepting all donations for the "Broker Bryant Work His Ass of for A Little Bit of Money" fund. 

Send donations to :

Broker Bryant
123  Out by the pool Blvd
Glad He Saved, FL 54321



 

Posted by Bryant Tutas, Selling Florida one home at a time (Tutas Towne Realty, Inc and Garden Views Realty, LLC) over 11 years ago
Let me know if your strategy for donations works :) (otherwise, your report is really neat..organized and eye appealing with explanations. I like that!)
Posted by Celeste "SALLY" Cheeseman, (RA) AHWD CRS ePRO OAHU HAWAII REAL ESTATE (Liberty Homes) over 11 years ago

it would only be cold enough to freeze your ass off if you were outside. sometimes I don't go out for days on end. that's the beauty of being blog bound and having a partner. but you know that, what with living with a pantaloon seamstress.

cheers 

Posted by Gary Bolen, CRS - Lake Tahoe Real Estate Information (McCall Realty) over 11 years ago
Surely things are going lo get better with time, line fine wine.
Posted by 1~Judi Barrett, BS Ed, Integrity Real Estate Services -IDABEL OK (Integrity Real Estate Services 118 SE AVE N, Idabel, OK 74745) over 11 years ago
thanks for the stats - it always helps to have an idea what other markets in our state are doing.
Posted by Barbara-Jo Roberts Berberi, MA, PSA, TRC - Greater Clearwater Florida Residential Real Estate Professional, Palm Harbor, Dunedin, Clearwater, Safety Harbor (Charles Rutenberg Realty) over 11 years ago
BB, you have my utmost respect because you clearly are actively selling despite being in such a down market.  You must be the best broker in your area.  The good news has to be that sellers are comprehending the market and that you see an end to the down-slide in the prices.  Those are great values so once buyer confidence returns I would think your inventory would go down.  Hang in there!
Posted by Diane Aurit, Lake Norman Real Estate (LKN Realty, LLC) over 11 years ago

Wow! I don't feel bad about my market anymore!  I am glad the stats have helped open seller's eyes to reality for you.  We all know the pain of trying to convince a seller their price is unrealistic.  The format of your report is awesome.  If you don't mind I am going to use it in place of my current format.  Thanks for  your great blogs, I learn something from every one of your posts.

Posted by Diana Corcoran, Rhinebeck Real Estate (Berkshire Hathaway Home Services Hudson Valley Properties) over 11 years ago

Wow- you are forecasting prices dropping to the level of 2004?

Your Days on Market for the solds isn't too bad really. What a shocker of price drops you have had there.

Posted by Sarah Nopp over 11 years ago
Excellent recap Broker Bryant.  I like to call this a "Retro Market"  price roll backs to a time when $130K could buy a house.  After 14 years in the biz you have seen it all just about.  Yes, you will have to sell more. your hired help will have t really get out there and push but you will be fine!  "Some people make thing happen, some watch things happen, while others wonder what has happened" I don't know who said it, but it fits.  Good Luck and Sell well.
Posted by Allison Stewart, St. Cloud Fl Realtor, Osceola County Real Estate 407-616-9904 (St.Cloud Homes ) over 11 years ago

Bryant -- Wow, you have an uncanny ability to give the straight scoop and do so with finesse.  My market is looking pretty good compared to your neck of the woods (or do you guys have swamp!?!?)  The number's don't lie, it is what it is, people may not like it, but it is what it is. . .

Posted by Lori Gilmore, Realtor - Will County Illinois (Baird & Warner Real Estate) over 11 years ago
Hey guys! Thanks for stopping by. Feel free to use this format. I like simple. I feel it's important that market reports are very consumer friendly. I placed this on my outside blog http://www.brokerbryant.com and mailed the link to all of my sellers. It's a good way to keep them informed.
Posted by Bryant Tutas, Selling Florida one home at a time (Tutas Towne Realty, Inc and Garden Views Realty, LLC) over 11 years ago

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