SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
(INFO COMPILED FROM THE MID-FLORIDA REGIONAL MLS
SEARCH CRITERIA: ACTIVE 34758,34759 SUBDIVISION POIN)
Comments from Bryant Tutas
Tutas Towne Realty, Inc
OK folks, I broke this analysis down to month by month in order to give you a true picture of what is going on in Poinciana Fl. Yearly averages will not work in a declining market. As you can see, the market in Poinciana is in dire straights. Properties ARE selling but they have to be priced below recent sales and they have to be in very good condition.
There are currently 1,065 active listings (single family homes) in the Poinciana neighborhoods. This does not include Solivita, Lake Marion Golf Resorts, Cypress Woods, For Sale by Owner properties or properties listed with non-MLS members.
With an average of 35 sales per month we have a 30 month supply of inventory. What that means is, it would take 2.5 years to sell current inventory if no other properties were placed on the market. The absorption rate is right over 3%. That means 3% of the homes on the market are selling every month.
The MEDIAN sales price, in the chart above, means that half the properties sold for less and half sold for more than this amount. For example, in December there were 38 sales. 19 of these sold for less than $150,750.
Values are steadily declining and are down 27%-33% thus far, for an average decline of 30%. This means a house worth $200,000 in January is now worth approximately $140,000.
So where do we go from here? That's a good question and I truly wish I had a crystal ball so I could give you a precise answer. But I don't. But I can make an educated guess based on my 14 years experience with selling hundreds of properties in Poinciana Fl. So here goes.
Unfortunately, prices still need to come down about 10% to 15%. Once this happens inventory should start decreasing. Less inventory and lower prices will help us get back on track. I would be very surprised if this happens in 2008.
2008 is going to be a year of adjustment. Poinciana has one of the highest foreclosure rates in the State. It's my opinion that foreclosures are on the rise and Poinciana, especially the Polk county side, specifically Village 7, is going to be hit very hard. These foreclosures will drag our values down even further.
The average and the median sales price was $130,000 in 2004. That's where we are headed and that's where the market will start to balance out.
OK, that's it. I hope this helped give you some insight on the market in Poinciana Fl. Any questions?
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