MARKET REPORT
POINCIANA NEIGHBORHOODS
SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
2007
(INFO COMPILED FROM THE MID-FLORIDA REGIONAL MLS
SEARCH CRITERIA: ACTIVE 34758,34759 SUBDIVISION POIN)
2007 MONTH | NUMBER OF CLOSINGS | AVERAGE SALES PRICE | MEDIAN SALES PRICE | DAYS ON MARKET |
JANUARY | 39 | $221,968 | $225,000 | 121 |
FEBRUARY | 41 | $205,024 | $202,900 | 124 |
MARCH | 45 | $194,469 | $196,000 | 112 |
APRIL | 38 | $204,795 | $200,450 | 127 |
MAY | 46 | $194,461 | $189,500 | 145 |
JUNE | 32 | $194,969 | $199,000 | 112 |
JULY | 34 | $179,599 | $172,951 | 151 |
AUGUST | 32 | $185,800 | $179,250 | 174 |
SEPTEMBER | 26 | $197,099 | $188,159 | 133 |
OCTOBER | 30 | $185,392 | $187,548 | 151 |
NOVEMBER | 24 | $177,608 | $182,450 | 95 |
DECEMBER | 38 | $162,680 | $150,750 | 147 |
JAN-DEC MARKET TREND | AVERAGE 35 MONTH MARKET TREND DECLINING | DOWN 27% MARKET TREND RAPIDLY DECLINING | DOWN 33% MARKET TREND RAPIDLY DECLINING | AVERAGE 132 MARKET TREND INCREASING
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Comments from Bryant Tutas
Broker/Owner
Tutas Towne Realty, Inc
OK folks, I broke this analysis down to month by month in order to give you a true picture of what is going on in Poinciana Fl. Yearly averages will not work in a declining market. As you can see, the market in Poinciana is in dire straights. Properties ARE selling but they have to be priced below recent sales and they have to be in very good condition.
There are currently 1,065 active listings (single family homes) in the Poinciana neighborhoods. This does not include Solivita, Lake Marion Golf Resorts, Cypress Woods, For Sale by Owner properties or properties listed with non-MLS members.
With an average of 35 sales per month we have a 30 month supply of inventory. What that means is, it would take 2.5 years to sell current inventory if no other properties were placed on the market. The absorption rate is right over 3%. That means 3% of the homes on the market are selling every month.
The MEDIAN sales price, in the chart above, means that half the properties sold for less and half sold for more than this amount. For example, in December there were 38 sales. 19 of these sold for less than $150,750.
Values are steadily declining and are down 27%-33% thus far, for an average decline of 30%. This means a house worth $200,000 in January is now worth approximately $140,000.
So where do we go from here? That's a good question and I truly wish I had a crystal ball so I could give you a precise answer. But I don't. But I can make an educated guess based on my 14 years experience with selling hundreds of properties in Poinciana Fl. So here goes.
Unfortunately, prices still need to come down about 10% to 15%. Once this happens inventory should start decreasing. Less inventory and lower prices will help us get back on track. I would be very surprised if this happens in 2008.
2008 is going to be a year of adjustment. Poinciana has one of the highest foreclosure rates in the State. It's my opinion that foreclosures are on the rise and Poinciana, especially the Polk county side, specifically Village 7, is going to be hit very hard. These foreclosures will drag our values down even further.
The average and the median sales price was $130,000 in 2004. That's where we are headed and that's where the market will start to balance out.
OK, that's it. I hope this helped give you some insight on the market in Poinciana Fl. Any questions?
Copyright © 2007 Broker Bryant Real Estate Ramblings | All Rights Reserved
Reserved Parking For "The Lovely Wife"...TLW...ROAR!
Blog Boy...
I hope you don't mind but I've decided that I like "The land of denial" :)
Now get off our Blog and go sell a house :)
TLW...ROAR!
Brian, I have thought of that. But I have been selling in Poinciana for 14 years and business just comes to me. I do have to sell a lot of houses to make a good living though. Of course it helps that I'm the broker and my expenses are low since I work from my home. I have a good life.
Matt, Ya think?? I fear it's going to get a lot worse too. This year should be challenging.
TLW, I love the land of denial. Hey I here AR is hiring!
Blog Boy...
Don't even think about it...
I am not moving again :)
TLW...ROAR!
Why don't you both come and do some a- kicking in New York? Pretty please?
Bryant,
You did a great job spelling it out in a way that everyone, professionals and consumers alike can understand your market. Good job.
Ha ha, I like TLW's advice.
Great summary, BB. Folks (including the agents) need to know the truth about what is going on, no matter how ugly it may be. Wishing you the best in 2008 - perhaps things will start to improve slowly before too long.
Jeff
BB, What is the rental market like right now in Poinciana? With prices with 10 - 15% of the bottom, bottom prices should be able to be negotiated.
It sounds like a good time for investors to move in.
Bill Roberts
I just did stats on one zip code in my area and it's down 14% for the year. That's not enough to get folks out. But, every little bit helps.
I don't know if the continued drop in your area is desireable. After a while, you just have to say, enough is enough.
All I can say is you folks have to work awfully hard to make a living down there.
I took three relocation buyers today, one for the $350K range, one for the $450K range and one for the $800K-$1M range. I sent the first two out and kept the third. I also showed a little $280K home in Lovettsville to a young first time home buyer.
An agent doesn't have to sell a lot of homes in this area to make a decent living
All in all, not a bad day for early January. The leads are holding up.
Reads very bad for Poinciana. The neighborhood needs more than just homes to turn things around. Local politicians should start talking about a reason to live there and what can be done to restore the community.
Very easy to read this post and well presented.
Good morning everyone, I see you like my little report. It sure does give a dose of reality. I have a listing appointment this morning and this report will make a pretty strong case for proper pricing. Let me answer the questions that were asked.
Sellers in Poinciana saw the light about 5 months ago. Most are willing to price right and do understand the market. The problem is the majority of the sellers I speak with are upside down on the mortgage. Since I'm not actively listing short sales right now I have to weed through about 10 sellers to get 1 or 2 listings. There are many short sales on the market. The problem with them is unless they are priced very very low REALTORS(R) are not even showing them. Why should they? Buyers are hard to find and there are over 1,000 to choose from. They want to show and sell houses they know will close. Then of course when the short sale is listed low enough to get showings it's now too low for the lender to accept the short. So it will end up getting foreclosed on.
The rental market in Poinciana is just as bad. There are 100s of vacant homes (mostly new flips that flopped) that folks are trying to rent. Mortgages on these vacants are in the $1,500 to $2,000 range they may rent for $800 to $900. These too will be foreclosed on in due course.
Poinciana is a working class neighborhood. It is the second fastest growing and I believe the second largest PUD in the country. We have almost 70,000. No government except the HOA. They just now started adding a lot of commercial sites but they are stores and restaurants not places for high paying jobs. In fact most of the folks that live in Poinciana do not work in Poinciana. They work in Orlando, Disney and other areas. It's a blue collar work force.
Folks move to Poinciana because it's affordable. Most only stay a few years. When prices were getting outrageous in 2005 Poinciana was swamped with "Investors" from S Florida and NY who were enticed by low prices and massive growth. The lure of easy money by purchasing new construction to flip was bring folks out of the wood work. They didn't know Poinciana was just a working class affordable neighborhood. All the investors saw was a new 2800 sq ft home for low 200s that would cost 500k in their area. What they didn't consider was who were they going to sell it to?
Well for a very short period of time they were able to sell it to another "investor" who wanted to get into the game quickly without waiting for a house to be built. So they would jump in the market at high 200s. Now there would be NO end buyer in this price range. This teamed with tightening credit caused Poinciana to hit the proverbial wall in early 2007.
The rest........well, the chart tells the story.
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Wow! I don't feel bad about my market anymore! I am glad the stats have helped open seller's eyes to reality for you. We all know the pain of trying to convince a seller their price is unrealistic. The format of your report is awesome. If you don't mind I am going to use it in place of my current format. Thanks for your great blogs, I learn something from every one of your posts.
Wow- you are forecasting prices dropping to the level of 2004?
Your Days on Market for the solds isn't too bad really. What a shocker of price drops you have had there.
Bryant -- Wow, you have an uncanny ability to give the straight scoop and do so with finesse. My market is looking pretty good compared to your neck of the woods (or do you guys have swamp!?!?) The number's don't lie, it is what it is, people may not like it, but it is what it is. . .