Selling Poinciana One Property at a Time.

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Breaking News!!! Approximately 93% of Homeowners are just fine!!

That's right. By far, the overwhelming majority of Homeowners in this country are NOT losing their homes. They either own their properties free and clear or are making their payments on time.

It's hard for us to see this because we are in the business. If you are like me you live and breathe Real Estate. We talk to people all day long who are struggling and it's very easy for us to forget that most Homeowners are living in and enjoying their homes.

I've mentioned many times over the last couple of years how more than 85% of the real estate closings in Poinciana Florida are distressed sales. But what I don't mention is that there were only 1,654 sales for 2009 out of 20,700 properties. About 8%. So 92% of the folks in Poinciana stayed put. That's right in line with the National average.

From what I could find online there are approximately ****129,400,000 homes in the US. Depending on where you look only 7-10 mil of these are in some stage of default. That's roughly 7%.

Approximately 93% of the Homeowners in this country are doing OK. That makes me feel good. How about you?

****I spent about an hour this morning pulling stats and data and there really are no numbers that agree. So for the purpose of this post I just used averages. If you want more precise figures then feel free to do your own research.

Do NOT be foreclosed on! Avoid foreclosure. Short Sales DO close.

Want to find out more? www.CentralFloridaShortSales.com

***I am NOT an Attorney nor do I play one on TV. Click the button below for my Bio.

The BIO for Bryant Tutas

Copyright © 2010 http://www.brokerbryant.com/ | All Rights Reserved

 

Comments

Reserved for TLW

Posted by Bryant Tutas-Tutas Towne Realty, Inc 4 months ago

Hi Bryant,

You are so right about that.  We have focused so much on those who are losing their homes, and not recognizing those who have no problems....only in the good USA!

Posted by Cheryl Thomson, SFR (Buyers Advantage Real Estate Corp.) 4 months ago

There are folks upside down in any economy. Pay as you go, living within your means never goes out of style in any economy. We hear the negative from the media, but not the silent majority that are not 20 minutes from foreclosure, bankruptcy. Too many folks blame it on the economy when they are in quicksand when it is poor personal spending control.

Posted by Andrew Mooers | Northern Maine Real Estate / Aroostook County Broker (MOOERS REALTY) 4 months ago

Possibly the greatest threat to the real estate market and related employment levels is the large number of homeowners who want to move up, but cannot.  Thousands, maybe millions of homeowners bought homes between 2004 and 2008, and they are up to date on their mortgage payments. In fact, they can afford a considerably higher payment and they want to trade up.  Problem is that they would need a pile of cash to sell their current home.  Negative equity has immobilized a half generation and will continue to keep them from moving until they are back close to even.  Looking at an amortization table, it looks like most are stuck where they are for another 10-14 years.  What a shame!  Solid, gainfully employed, high credit score people are going nowhere until maybe 2020.

Posted by E.J. "Mike" Carlier ABR CRS GRI (MarketLink Realty Apple Valley MN) 4 months ago

Bryant, It is no surprise in our modern world that the small percentage of people make the biggest noise when they are negatively affected. The rest of our citizens go along quietly about our lives.

Posted by Steve Loynd, Alpine Lakes Real Estate Inc., Loon Mt, NH. 4 months ago

Locally our numbers of stable homeownership is better than average.  We've only had about 3% of totals homes that are distressed sales.  Of course like in all areas it makes up more than half of the actual sales.  The only other thing I can say is that the 53% of of our sales that are distressed has kept some people from actually listing right now.  We've had people say "well I don't have to sell for that" when they didn't like our realistic CMA.  My advise to those folks is to stay out of the market until we don't have a 36 month supply on the market.  Most agree and and are staying put.

Posted by Tammy Lankford/Broker Lane Realty Lake Sinclair-Central GA 4 months ago

BB, such an easy perspective that has been long overlooked.  I don't think it'll reach "Breaking News" status which is what the media thrives on but we need to understand it.  Thanks!

Posted by Kevin J. May Naples, FL Southwest Florida Real Estate (Prudential Florida Realty) 4 months ago

You are SO right, Bryant! I live and work in an area that currently has fewer than 500 short sales in the MLS in a 4 county area, only 12 in my county of residence. We are doing quite well here with the biggest hurdle being only recently jumped - getting sellers to understand that, indeed, they will NOT sell their home for what their neighbor got back in 2006.  99% of our sellers are "giving up" perceived equity, not principal.

The problem, of course, for those who do end up behind on their house payments, is that they end up in short sale or foreclosure 98% of the time...the recovery rate is pretty grim in that group.

Posted by SarahGray Lamm~REALTOR~ 60K Hours of NC Real Estate Experience~ (Allen Tate Realtors Chapel Hill, NC 919-819-8199 ) 4 months ago

I guess it's all depends on what you consider being fine is.

They might be making their mortgage payment but if they have to sell in order to move, they'll probably be in a jam because they are upside down.  It's kind of a slow death watch.  One by one, another one will bite the dust when some circumstance in their life changes.

Posted by Tim Maitski "Video Agent Guy" (HomeAtlanta.com) 4 months ago

Tim, Of course you are right but I'm just trying to be a little optimistic today. I deal wth doom and gloom every day and today I needed a lift. I'm sure others do too.

Posted by Bryant Tutas-Tutas Towne Realty, Inc 4 months ago

Bryant,

How come nobody else reports the good news?

Just once it would be nice to turn on the t.v. or pull up a website and see headlines like:

93% of Homeowners are Just Fine!

98.9% of Commuters Avoided Accidents on the Way to Work This Week!

99.95% of Air Travellers Arrived at Their Destination Without a Crash This Year!

Posted by Brian Block -- Northern Virginia & D.C. Real Estate (RE/MAX Allegiance, Managing Broker/Branch Vice President) 4 months ago

Bryant,

Welcome to the wide world of sanity!

You know of course that you may lose the PC's in your audience. They won't like you spreading truth! It's very PC to be a victim, like abortion defaulting is promoted as a right of passage. The truth is you can't handle the truth! The numbers have to be distorted to justify the defaulters and for the promoters to profit!

Tim, is right, but the idea is short sighted. There have always been people who's owed more than what their property is worth! They come in two categories Shrewed and Stupid! Most today fit in the S... group. 

Bill

Posted by William J Archambault Jr (The Real Estate Investment Institute ) 4 months ago

Thank you, Bryant. Very nicely put.

Posted by Ralph The Real Estate Dog 4 months ago

Bryant,

So fundamental and so overlooked.  It is sad that many folks are in dire straits, but so many people are not and they should not be ignored.  They are the real estate market where I work.

Posted by Mike Jaquish Cary, NC, Real Estate (KELLER WILLIAMS® Realty) 4 months ago

Perhaps.  However, that 93% includes the home owners with negative equity and that's a ticking time bomb.

Posted by Lenn Harley, Real Estate Broker, Virginia & Maryland (Lenn Harley, Homefinders.com, MD & VA Homes and Real Estate) 4 months ago

Very Good News- thanks for posting!  So many times agents even get down in the dumps when there business is thriving because of the news- We can't expect the public not to fall into the trap when they are not living it day in day out like us!   

Posted by StapletonHomeTeam KnopHomeTeam (Distinctive Properties, Ltd) 4 months ago

For heaven's sake, Lenn- of that 93%, only 53% have negative equity- that leaves a good solid 33% in good situations- except, of those, 10% are probably soon to be unemployed. Feel better yet, BB?

I couldn't resist. Sorry.

Posted by Laurie Mindnich at Options Realty 4 months ago

Bryant, sorry for being negative.  I know you know how bad the situation really is.

Posted by Tim Maitski "Video Agent Guy" (HomeAtlanta.com) 4 months ago

Lenn, I don't think that it's necessarily a ticking time bomb.  Many of the negative equity homeowners bought between 2004 and 2008, and mabe reasonable downpayments, are paying promptly, and could comfortably afford a larger monthly payment.  Rather a ticking time bomb, those folks represent an industry that doesn't "tick" nearly as well as it would with another half-generation of mobile buyers and sellers.  They represent much of what is prohibiting the return to at least close to normal.  They will remain in homes that they would like to trade up, but their negative equity will make it almost impossible.  There are ways to get this half generation mobile again, but nobody is interested yet.  Banks and our unimaginative electees are too busy prolonging the return to rental by the accidental homeowners who will continue to struggle until they "fail" and get some stability back in their lives. 

Posted by E.J. "Mike" Carlier ABR CRS GRI (MarketLink Realty Apple Valley MN) 4 months ago

BB - Thanks for the uplifting perspective. Some days are better than others for me but as a short sale listing agent, it can get tough to see the brighter side. This gives me some ideas on how to interpret my local market from a more positive perspective!!

Posted by Christianne Gordon, REALTOR® e-PRO CDPE SFR Carson Valley Real Estate Specialist (Carson Valley Homes and Land - RE/MAX Realty Affiliates) 4 months ago

Thanks for the uplifting stats.  It is really nice to hear something good for a change.

Posted by Rebecca Gaujot Lewisburg WV Realtor (Coldwell Banker Stuart & Watts Real Estate) 4 months ago

Love your positive report. . .that why  I subscribe to your blog!

Posted by Fernando Herboso Broker: Check All www.ReallyNiceHomes.com in MD & VA (PrimeTime Realty Homes- Associate Broker 240.426.5754) 4 months ago

If it bleeds it leads....

Thanks for the good news ;-)

Posted by Tracey Thomas Calabasas, CA Real Estate (Keller Williams Realty) 4 months ago

Thanks Broker Bryant. I'm one of the 97%. I'm just fine thank you.

Making my best guestimate of house value, I have about 90% equity right now. My payment is a low enough percent of my income that I have been paying more than twice the monthly P&I for a couple of years. I will have 100% equity next year.

Posted by Homeowner 4 months ago

So very true. When people ask me how the market is doing I tell them just fine 90% of the people are still employed and can buy something, I think its called the glass is half full.

Posted by Alan Brown (Coldwell Banker Montrose Colorado) 4 months ago

hmmm.....not buying it. I agree with Len, this includes tons of people who have negative equity. Ticking time bomb.

"Lies, damned lies, and statistics"......

Posted by Mike Wald, Scottsdale, AZ, mortgage consultant, 480-659-4514 4 months ago

Well thank goodness someone FINALLY pointed this out and though Lenn is correct, we are not "doomed" just yet!

Posted by Russell Lewis, Broker,CLHMS,GRI (AvenueOne Properties, Austin Texas Real Estate) 4 months ago

We are seeing more "standard sales" come on the market recently and it's always refreshing. Amazing that we had to come up with a new term for them.

Posted by Cameron Wilson: Murrieta/Temecula/ Menifee California Real Estate (Century 21 Tri Valley Realty) 4 months ago

Hi BB -- I think this very tough market will create some lessons learned for everyone, but since the banks were bailed out, I would assume they can play with fire again and have Uncle Sam come with the fire extinguisher, so I imagine there will be future problems, but the average American is a very determined person and I have great faith in the perserverance in the human spirit, regardless of current economic circumstances.

Posted by Chris Olsen Broker Owner Cleveland Ohio Real Estate (Olsen Ziegler Realty) 4 months ago

This is the real estate equivalent of "today in New York City, 10 million people didn't get shot." I'm not saying there's anything bad with some positive spin. But here in Las Vegas, it's estimated that about 70% of the homeowners are underwater. Combine that with 13.3% unemployment and it's a recipe for further foreclosures, short sales and strategic defaults -- all of which will continue to put downward pressure on home values.

Posted by John Novak - Las Vegas and Henderson NV Real Estate (Keller Williams Realty The Marketplace) 4 months ago

That may be true.  Do you know the percentage of property owners in the nation that have seen their value, equity, appreciation decline in the past 2 years?  And if there is any type of decline in values, do you know the percentage?  Is it 10%, 20%, 30% of properties around the nation that have seen a negative appreciation?

Posted by Carla Muss-Jacobs Principal Broker/Owner EBA Portland LLC | www.EBAPortland.com | (Exclusive Buyers Agent Beaverton Portland) 4 months ago

What a refreshing change to hear some good news. Sure, there are still challenges but you've got to start somewhere. Thanks for choosing a different route.

Posted by Adam Couto (Mind, Body and Sales for the Real Estate Professional) 4 months ago

That is very refreshing information. That being said the percentage losing their homes is so much greater than ever before that it still seems high!

Posted by Melissa Zavala Realtor® North San Diego County Homes (Broadpoint Properties) 4 months ago

Bryant - I'm surprised that the number is this low, but thats because I live and work in middle Tennessee, and we seem to be doing a little better tan the national average. Either way, it's a number that will never make the lamestream media headlines.

Posted by Larry Brewer (Benchmark Realty LLc) 4 months ago

NICE!

Posted by Nogui Aramburo - Bilingual Durham (Dream Living Realty) 4 months ago

I'm with Brian!  I vote for a station/channel that's absolutely nothing but GOOD NEWS!  Let me know when that petition has started.

Posted by Tamara Inzunza, CRS, ePro | Alexandria VA Real Estate | 703-623-8759 (McEnearney Associates, Inc. | www.MovingToNova.com) 4 months ago

It's great to share good news...thank you

Posted by MJ Anton (MJ Anton-Consultant-Just Help/Financial Help 4 Homeowners) 4 months ago

BB...

I like the way that you stated this ... it is a very positive message!

Posted by Richard Weisser Coweta Fayette Real Estate 4 months ago

I'm pleasantly surprised with the number of "traditional" buyers who are jumping into the market right now - same with the sellers.

Feels like a great Spring season is in the works.

Posted by Mary Krummenacher (RE/MAX Properties West) 4 months ago

There are a lot of people that aren't looking for bailouts or for someone else to handle their responsibilities...  Good reminder. 

Posted by Lane Bailey - REALTOR & Car Guy (Diamond Dwellings Realty) 4 months ago

Good beams of light always out sun the rain. Just made that up, pretty bad huh?

I always like meeting with sellers that are realistic, not in any trouble and didn't fall for the inflated values of yesteryear. Most of them however are very happy where they are--93% of them are at least.

Posted by Ross Therrien, Realtor, Broker Associate (Prudential Verani Realty, Londonderry,New Hampshire) 4 months ago

Vegas Checking in here!!  I am 100K upside down, paying my house payment and PUTTING MONEY in my house with new flooring, a bath remodel and new tropical landscaping in my backyard.  What the hell is wrong with me?

Posted by Renee Burrows - Las Vegas NV Valley - Homes For Sale - Real Estate Market News (The Force Realty -Realtor>Estate>Probate>REO>Short Sale) 4 months ago

Ok, I can't resist, Christmas decore in April?  Even us northerners have taken it down by now.

Posted by Ross Therrien, Realtor, Broker Associate (Prudential Verani Realty, Londonderry,New Hampshire) 4 months ago

By far, the overwhelming majority of Homeowners in this country are NOT losing their homes.

Thank God for that!!! But the 7% kinda rock the rest of the country, didn't they?

Posted by Loreena Yeo, Realtor® Frisco TX Homes www.316teamREALTY.com (214) 783-2210 (3:16 team REALTY) 4 months ago

This is great news to hear that so many are not in trouble with their mortgage

Posted by Roland Woodworth,SFR - Clarksville Short Sale and Foreclosure Resource (Exit Realty Clarksville) 4 months ago

I love your glass half full or in this case 93% full outlook. Too bad the majority of the 7% are in the same few states.

Wonder why the media outlets never talk about Detroit which probably tops the list?

Glad business is good here in San Antonio. Blessings for a great year!

Posted by Cindy Cranston (Keller Williams Heritage- Floresville, LaVernia, San Antonio) 4 months ago

Hey Bryant - I have no problem with your positive spin...unfortunately, I think the reality (of which you are already painfully aware) is that way too many of the "93%" are facing certain doom or are stagnated in their homes for another decade.   ...which, by the way, does not bode well for our profession.

Posted by Kent Anderson (Coldwell Banker Resort Realty) 4 months ago

I think Lenn's ticking time bomb is that those who are underwater and doing "fine" might not always be "fine." If there is any major change in income, a job loss a forced move for a new job - they will be in trouble because they will require cash that they don't have to get out.  What percentage of people will be in this situation is hard to say.  But since the avereage family moves every 7 years .....it could be a bumpy ride.

Posted by Ruthmarie Hicks (Keller Williams Realty) 4 months ago

Wow. That's an amazing number. I do know that our statistics have been improving, but I hadn't heard of anything this good. I think I'll re-blog it  =)

Posted by Lisa Hill (Daytona Beach Real Estate) (Florida Property Experts) 4 months ago

First, there's the "sand" states" CA, AZ, NV, & FL.  They account for 80% of all the distressed property.  Then there's everyone else!

Posted by Regina P. Brown Real Estate on the California Coast 4 months ago

thank you! I keep teling people this same thing... but the media paints a picture of doom and gloom...WHY? we had 6 foreclosures here last..... the year before we had 2 and the newspaper said we were up 200% because we had none the year before... twisted!

Posted by Debra Leisek (Broker Bay Realty Homer Alaska) 4 months ago

I'm making TWO, TWO, TWO mortgages with the help of my tenant's rent in an investment home.  Yes, let's CELEBRATE the homeowners/property owners who ARE keeping their agreements!!!

Posted by Wallace S. Gibson CPM * GRI (Gibson Management Group, Ltd.) 4 months ago

Loved your headline. Yes, there are many folks who are doing fine, enjoying home-ownership the way is was suppose to be. In the past 60 days I helped three homeowners sell and all will receive equity checks at settlement. Those situations were well balanced traditional real estate transactions.

And then there are the rest of the homeowners who purchased in 2005 to 2007. From all accounts they appear to be doing just fine. However FINE has another meaning FRUSTRATED,IRRATIONAL, NEUROTIC & EMOTIONAL!

Just this week alone I have met with four homeowners who are FINE. They want to stay in their homes. The have significant investments with ten, some twenty percent down payments. They are all current on payments and have very good scores in mid 700's. However they are facing a mandatory RESET on the terms of their loan. They are blocked from refinancing to a better rate.Know they will not be able to make the fully amortized payments. Each have contacted their lenders  only to be turned down from the modification departments that  "we have no way to modify your loan, or you do not qualify for a modification at this time, you should just short sell it". So yeah....many folks in America are doing just FINE!

Posted by Peggy James- "Your Neighborhood Realtor" Serving Lake Ridge VA and Woodbridge VA (Exit 1st Choice Realty) 4 months ago

Right on!

We still have issues, yup, we've been in this business long enough to know we'll always have issues.

it's just not a perfect world.

more, more, more

i have an insatiable appetite for positive news.

Posted by Jay Beckingham (HomeLynx Home Loans) 4 months ago

Thank you for sharing this good news. It's a break from the media's doom and gloom. Funny how they never mention the good things.

Posted by Jackie Connelly-Fornuff Century 21 AA Lindenhurst NY Real Estate (Lindenhurst Babylon West Babylon N. Babylon West Islip Islip) 4 months ago

There's a lot of variance by location, but nice to have some good news.

Posted by Pam Turner, REALTOR®, e-PRO®, SFR (Century 21 Belk Realtors Dalton GA) 4 months ago

Bryant, thanks for presenting the positives. As realtors, we have to do something to try to overcome what the media wants everyone to think. But I do think as we do this, we need to take a step back and be sure to remember that 1) anyone losing their home (and I'm not talking about those who are strategically defaulting or didn't care in the first place whether there was any way they could afford to pay their mortgage) is miserable and wreaking havoc on the real estate market as a whole, and 2) that 25% or Americans are upside down so if something happens in their life they can't count on their equity to help them through a situation - and beyond that 25%, there are countless more that although are not technically upside down, at best could break even if they sell and don't have enough equity to help them in an emergency situation.

That said, though, we still have to find positives, as you are doing - otherwise we may as well not bother being in this business.

Posted by Susan Thompson (Century 21 New Millennium) 4 months ago

Great way to look at things Bryant!!  I guess the sky is not falling after all!

Posted by Jennifer K Giraldi, Atlanta REALTOR® Atlanta Real Estate Expert (Solid Source Realty Atlanta) 4 months ago

Many people are doing fine...if they are not moving.

If they are they go from fine...to loss of equity....and maybe not so fine.

I appreciate the positive being said, but I can tell you in Ann Arbor even in a normal sale, most of our sellers are walking away from the sale of their homes with nothing or the majority are bringing in money.

Regardless of home sale price this is what I see happening.

 

Posted by Missy Caulk-Ann Arbor-Realtor® Ann Arbor Real Estate (Keller Williams-Ann Arbor) 4 months ago

I know that we focus so much on helping the people that need to sell their homes as short sale to avoid foreclosure that we forget about the large number of people that aren't moving.  I listening to the Today show right now stating that over 6 million homes are facing foreclosure still.  They are saying 1 in 4 homes are in foreclosure. 

Your positive post is a shining light in the dark.  I need positive mojo today.

Posted by Kay Van Kampen–Springfield, Ozark, Nixa Greene County Missouri Real Estate Agent (RE/MAX Broker, RE/MAX Solutions) 4 months ago

Bryant, looking at it from a positive approach put a whole different light on the subject. Thanks.

Posted by Michael Setunsky (Michael's Commercial LLC) 4 months ago

I agree with Lenn.  There is still the negative equity bomb to consider.  And I just "Looked" at my own situation yesterday...Yes, we are making our payments on time every month and our value has dropped about $30K in the last 2-3 years.  For me, that's about a 20% drop.  So, while I am still living in my home, I do not love it those months that making the payment is a struggle.

Maybe that 7% does "sound" like a small number but the impact is far-reaching.  See above.

 

Posted by Jenna Dixon, Assoc Broker, NW Metro Atlanta (DRA Homes (Atlanta, GA)) 4 months ago

Is this I can't see the forest for the trees type of story? It seems that we are doing so many short sales it may be we think they all are.

Posted by Joe Pryor.com REALTOR® Oklahoma Investment Properties (Redbud Realty) 4 months ago

Bryant, Thank You for the reminder that not all is bleak.  Wondering if we can get you a spot on the Today Show???

Posted by John Howard (Century 21 LeMac Realty) 4 months ago

Hi Bryant,

I think the problem is many of these homeowners are sitting on property where they are making payments, but their property today is worth less than their mortgage. 

                                 ;>))

Posted by Ann-Marie Clements Luxury Homes REALTOR® M.S. Ed., Saint John, NB (Royal LePage Atlantic) 4 months ago

BB, it was tough finding stats wasn't it? I remember last year trying to find something and they said 5% only were having problems. With the media scrutiny it makes it seem much larger than it is. Thanks for the perspective and getting the word out for your market.

Posted by Lyn Sims - Northwest Suburbs (Schaumburg Homes - RE/MAX Suburban) 4 months ago

Bryant,

Happy people and good things do not make headlines or sell news of any kind...Thanks for the good news, we like it.

Posted by Ron & Alexandra Seigel (Luxury Real Estate Marketing) (ra@napaconsultants.com) 4 months ago

Bryant...you post gives needed balance to the industry. Well done. I guess this isnt the beginning of Armageddon  after all. Thank you

Posted by Richie Naggar Ran Right Realty Riverside, Ca 4 months ago

Stepping back from my business this year to travel with my husband in Asia gave me a new perspective on what is really happening in the Real Estate market.

You are so right to remind us of how many people are really living the American dream well and not struggling through a Real Estate nightmare.

I am fortunate to work with investors who are purchasing rental properties so we see alot of positve energy.

I needed a break to come back refreshed and to see US RE in perspective.

Life goes on and teaches us many lessons. One of which is that we all work hard for what we have but we also need to take time to enjoy life!

Posted by Gina@GinaYoungren.com (ABR,e-PRO,SRES) Rancho Bernardo 92127,92128,92130 (Coldwell Banker Real Estate DRE#01410072) 4 months ago

Bryant,

 

Thanks for getting the the "good news" out there. We have plenty of bad news!

Posted by Mike Frazier, Dyersburg Tn Real Estate (Carousel Realty of Dyer County) 4 months ago

Bryant,

That is good news and worth remembering. The thing is that the 7% were able to implode the mortgage market and financial system. Something is wrong with that picture.

Posted by Esko Kiuru 4 months ago

Darn good news is never news in this or any country....Stewart Larsen@coldwell Banker

Posted by stewart larsen (Coldwell Banker D'Ann Harper) 4 months ago

I hate to sound negative, but there's a whole lot of hurt going on out there that you are not considering.  How many millions are upside-down on equity but struggling to hang in there, facing an impending job loss, will have a major health issue, etc?  These are not deadbeats who can't manage their finances. The impact of this recession is far from over.

Posted by Al Kernek (Pacifica Endeavors LLC) 4 months ago

I think it's good to look at the positive side occasionally though the numbers I've heard are much higher though I haven't the research.

Posted by Christine Donovan Costa Mesa Real Estate Broker/Attorney 800-610-7253 DRE01267479 (Donovan Blatt Team - Donovan Group Realty) 4 months ago

Bank of America has over 1.2 Mil. in default currently and there are roughly less than 60 mil.  Mortgages. The largest number of resets of risky loans dont even hit till next year through 2012. Credit Suisse estimated 9 mil more defaults in the next 4 years. There are 3 mil estimated this year and in California the situation is much worse. Hold on you just haven't felt it yet, but way to stay positive.

Posted by Jeff Cole (The Cole Group Windermere Exclusive Properties) 4 months ago

Good point.  I think the concern is that the problems of the other 7% will have a domino effect on the rest.

Posted by Gene Riemenschneider East Contra Costa Home Sales 01492725 (Home Point Real Estate) 4 months ago

So true, Bryant, that we look at the downside instead of the upside...very important that you posted this, because it is encouraging indeed.

Posted by William James Walton, Sr. Greater Waterbury Real Estate (Century21 Access America) 4 months ago

I enjoyed your positive comments about the large majority of homeowners who aren't in trouble, but that doesn't take into account the peril of the fractional reserve system on which our entire banking system relies.  What you need to understand is that every non-performing asset greatly diminishes the amount of money a bank can lend out.

For example, if a bank has 25 million in liquid reserves (depositors' money) and lends out 50 million per month for home mortgages, personal loans, commercial mortgage and business loans, etc, relying on leverage from federal reserve dollars, it makes 600 million in loans for the year.  If 7% of 600 million go into default, that's 42 million dollars in bad loans!  By fractional reserve rules, that bank can no longer lend any money until it cures its asset ratios, which means that bank is without income and hemorrhaging money every month.  Throw in some investor buy-backs from the secondary market, and you have bank failure.  The FDIC steps in to protect deposit accounts for up to $250,000, the bank is dismantled, and its tapes are sold off to other banks at a discount.

This is what has been happening the past 3 years.  While 7% doesn't sound like much, that many defaults creates abject panic in the banking industry.

Posted by Brent Reader (Southwest Funding) 4 months ago

These numbers greatly depend on location.  In many of the established neighborhoods here in Seminole County where I am out, I would say 93% or thereabouts is probably an accurate number.  But if you get into some of the newer neighborhoods that didn't break ground until 2004 or after, the numbers are very different.  In some of those areas I would guess 1 in 3 houses is either for sale, for rent, or is/has gone through foreclosure recently.  Do some driving through areas of Clermont, Davenport, Avalon Park, and Kissimmee and visit the new neighborhoods.  Some of them look like a ghost town from Wild West movie. 

Posted by Rob Arnold, metro Orlando full service, investor friendly & foreclosure Realtor (Sand Dollar Realty Group, Inc.) 4 months ago

until the citizens of our country (and government) stop living beyond their means, the economy will not recover.  its funny how most people learned nothing from our recent recession.  we are in for a huge wake up call very soon.

Posted by shane gallagher 4 months ago

Thanks for this post. Many people still think that everyone is about to lose their house! It drives me crazy!

Posted by Billy Studstill first time home buyers,foreclosure,lease (Victory Realty, first time home buyer, foreclosure ) 4 months ago

Bryant,

I like how you think. I'm not saying to ignore the problem, but let's look at the glass as being 93% full and not 7% empty.

Posted by Dino Patras (Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage) 4 months ago

That might be a feel good headline, but the real problem is the banks. The banks were and continue to be (the problems have not been addressed let alone fixed) highly leveraged... In many cases 35:1 or even higher. This means that if the value of their assets (homes across this country) decrease by only 3% then these institutions would have ALL of their liquid assets wiped out and would be insolvent and bankrupt.

Of course the value of homes has decreased by more than 3% on average off of their peak. Instead of there being a financial reconing, the rules have been changed to allow banks to claim that the homes are still worth their peak values from 2006 and 2007. The banks are now legally allowed to lie about their assets. The only way they are forced to tell the truth about the value of these homes is if they are forced to forclose/short sell (wonder why those short sales are taking so long?) or if the borrower goes bankrupt.

The Govt is happy to let them lie because the FDIC doesn't have enough money to insure that you don't lose everything in your checking account when these banksters bite it.

You're still optimistic? I'm not.

Posted by Jason "Need more business?" Sanders - Business Networking Specialist (TheValuePagesGroup.com) 4 months ago

It's the same here in rural Pennsylvania. We do have an increase in short sales and foreclosures but not like in other parts of the country.

Posted by Erica Ramus - Realty Executives / Pottsville PA Real Estate 4 months ago

Hey I guess a little optimism will go a long way!!!

Ok so obviously I don't live and work in a time warp. I'm actually in one foo the hardest hit areas in the country with values down 75% from their peak.

I wrote this post to put things a little more in perspective. Also, houses are flying offg the shelves. Business is booming and inventory is very low.

BUT...I also know we ain't seen nothing yet. The later half of 2010 is going to be brutal.

However I am also seeing NEW buyers coming into the market. Folks that are young and could not have bought a house 4 years ago. They are getting great houses at a great prices. We have to remember that even though many folks are trapped in their homes because of lack of equity there are mnay others that are just now coming into the market.

In the long run...it will all balance out.

Posted by Bryant Tutas-Tutas Towne Realty, Inc 4 months ago

I have owned homes upside down in equity.....and it's still a home, I didn't default because I could make the payment. So I didn't....then when values came back up, I owned a home that was fine in value.....I don't believe most people look at their homes as ATMs, but those that did are walking.

Posted by Karen Fiddler Broker/Realtor (Great Western Realty Group/eVantage Real Estate) 4 months ago

Positive thinking and yes those folks are fine, God Bless Them for keeping current until they might HAVE to move. You know, divorce, health issue, death of a spouse, job transfer or replacement on the other end of the country.... then when they have to bring $100k to the closing table, what do they do? I don't mean to be a negative Nellie, just saying..............What then?

Posted by Dick and Dixie Sells, Your Tampa Bay Florida Connection (Future Home Realty) 4 months ago

I think I'll just be optimistic ....if not for today.

On that note......   wanna cookie?   LMAO now!

Posted by Celeste "SALLY" Cheeseman HAWAII Real Estate & Relocations (Century 21 Liberty Homes) 4 months ago

Focus on the positive. Great post. Thanks Bryant.

Posted by Eric Michael, CDPE - Real Estate & Short Sale Professional (734)564-1519 (Remerica Integrity, Realtors®, Northville, MI) 4 months ago

Bryant - That is surprising to hear, even though I haven't dealt with that many distress sales here in Austin.  Thanks for the perspective!

Posted by Jason Crouch, Broker - Austin Texas Real Estate (512-796-7653) (Austin Texas Homes, LLC) 4 months ago

I love this post! And of course those who point out that many of those currently not behind are not going to be fine if they have to move. But I do believe people would make better decisions instead of reacting with fear and confusion, if the drumbeat of doom wasn't all they heard from the media, and from certain real estate agents. Seriously, some agents are so negative about the market, how can they consider it ethical to sell a house? 

Posted by Joetta Fort - Realtor Denver Colorado Real Estate (The DiGiorgio Group) 4 months ago

I guess we can take heart in the statistic that 93% are not yet in default. That's fine for now.

But the surprise with our current economy, or the new reality is very few homeowners could weather the loss of a job or other unexpected crisis being that so many homeowners equity has been comprimised. When you've earned a high income for years and have 50% equity in a home it's hard to imagine ever having to sell by way of a short sale.

Once upon a time a smart young builder/Realtor/investor owned several properties that added up to a substancial investment. Values went south, there were family issues and we sold several properties, all except the last one. We rented it for 2 years then lost our tenant.

We emptied our savings accounts trying to stay current for 4 years while trying to sell the home, and finally sold it for 12K less than the mortgage. The resulting shame and embarassment is the same . Even though we remain upstanding, hardworking citizens...when we go to buy our next house, or even rent our next house... we still have to reveal my husband's lowered credit score (I thankfully wasn't on the mortgage). It's demoralizing.

Posted by Cecilia Nault (Professional One Real Estate) 4 months ago

That's interesting. How did you even go about pulling the data? In Southern Md, roughly 5-10% of the homes sell each month each zip code whcih means 90-95% do not. Funny how similar the numbers are.

Posted by Cheryl Ritchie, Southern Maryland Real Estate (RE/MAX 100) 4 months ago

Unfortunately, the mainstream media is never going to carry this story.  I often tell clients not to listen to the national news...real estate is local.

Posted by Tammie White Franklin TN Homes For Sale (Keller Williams Realty) 4 months ago

Focusing on what is good is not sexy and usually doesn't seem newsworthy. Yes people forget that 93% of the country is fine but we are inundated with news/media that only focuses on the negative and then its compounded by water cooler talks and TVs turned on at the gym.  I work in 2 different counties Alameda County and Marin County.  Alameda County CA has short sales and REOs on every other block depending on what neighborhood you're looking at, if you look at Marin County CA the stats are pretty good and its only a small segment of the market that is struggling. I tend to see the glass as half full but more than half of my current business is with short sales and more are coming out of the wood works. What I'd like to know is how many of the defaults, short sales and foreclosures are or were owned by Realtors? I'd say at least 25% if not more.

Posted by Lydia Puller, Marin County CA Realtor and Relocation Specialist (Alain Pinel Realtors, Marin County Relocation) 4 months ago

Bryant, when all the screams of foreclosure hit the news last I kept asking what was the national % of foreclosed properties.  I looked and looked and wasn't able to find that percentage.  Having worked in a bank on delinquencies many years ago - I remember that every bank knows that a particular number of loans they put on the books will go into default (car, recreational, mortgage etc) - their business plan allots for it.  So your good news answers that for me.  We are at a 7% delinquency level. 

thanks for the good news this morning... the sky hasn't fallen.

 

Posted by Lee & Pamela St. Peter Raleigh NC, Realtors®, GRI,CRS,ABR,ePro (Prudential York Simpson Underwood Realty) 4 months ago

Ah, the never-ending variance between what one would believe if watching too much TV, and what's real. Some days I think we spend more time un-doing the damage the media creates than actually selling homes.

Posted by Ryan Hukill - Edmond Realtor® (Platinum Partners of Paradigm AdvantEdge) 4 months ago

BB~  We have enough people reporting the bad and negative news. It is refreshing to see some postive news for a change. 

Posted by Owensboro KY Real Estate Agent Vickie McCartney Realtor Owensboro Ky (Maverick Realty) 4 months ago

BB ~ I wish the media would just tell the real and the rest of the story.  My eyes light up yesterday when I saw a cement mixer truck going down the road and another one loaded with sheet rock.  Spring is here and its a new year.  I did very well the first quarter and looking foward to the rest of the story! 

Posted by Franklin, NC ~ June Tassillo ~ SFR Realtor/Broker 828-371-2339 (Classic GMAC Real Estate ) 4 months ago

Is it that unheard of for people to live in their homes for 10-15 years?  You're all making me feel like Grandpa Strohmann yearning for the "good ol days."  In fact, unless you live in a high relo area, just a generation ago, people bought houses, lived entire lifetimes in them, burned their mortgages, and were taken out of them "feet first."  To this day, when I get together with high school friends, most of their parents still live in the homes we grew up in.  (I'm in my late....ok, very late....30s).

So, what's changed?  We started seeing real estate as a wealth accumulation vehicle.  At that shift, you may as well called it real estate investing.  Investing involves risk.  And, as some people enjoyed gains, now some people are experiencing losses.  Just like my 401K is down 50%.  For some reason, it's easier for people to accept those investment losses, than their home investment losses.  

I'm not talking about people who got "caught" with a job loss, divorce, etc.  That sucks.  But for the majority of us who are in homes we can afford, making our payments, I don't think it's all that catastrophic that we have to continue to live in the home for longer before we can afford to move up.  

Posted by Heather Oberhau, Bucks County Real Estate, e-PRO (Prudential Fox & Roach) 4 months ago

Refreshing to see something with a positive spin... in glancing at a few blog entries, I clicked on yours because the negatitivity is painful.  I am having our best quarter ever here in Metrowest Massachusetts (in 12 years).  Am I financially pressured with the economy and investment decisions over the past few years?... yes, but I am making those payments and working on growth.  Many people are hurting or uncertain, but less than negative news leads us to believe.  Keep your heads down and stay positive.

Posted by Ed Daniels - Metrowest Boston Real Estate 4 months ago

I actually think the number is even better than you put there.  The media focuses on all the bad and never posts the good. We have to go looking for the good, which is often right under the negative headline.

The most recent delinquency report I saw was just over 6%, Thats delinquent, meaning late... It doesnt mean that they were foreclosed on, it just means Oops, forgot my payment this month.  The actual foreclosure number is still a small small percentage of all home loans. 

that 6+%also doesnt take into account that there are a lot of free and clear properties, which will bring up your 93% even higher. 

Things are not as bad as the media wants us to believe, but the spew the bad so often that it becomes a self fulfilling prophesy.

Posted by Robert Rauf (REMN The Real Estate Mortgage Network) 4 months ago

IMHO your post should be headlines on all major networks Bryant - unfortunately media culture is such that negative news sells more.

sincerely,

grace

Posted by Jeff & Grace Safrin, Broker / Owners, Northwest Indiana (F.C.Tucker 1st Team Real Estate) 4 months ago

When unemployment was 7% someone was preaching doomsday on a forum I frequent (where all the participants are anonymous except realtors). When I said that meant 93% of the population was employed, I was raked over the coals as being commission breath realtor trying to manipulate the numbers!!!

Of course here in Phoenix the unemployment is up over 9%, and that is not good, however, I still maintain that  90% of the population is employed. But then again I'm  probably just manipulating the numbers to get clients :-)

Posted by Val Vista Lakes Gilbert Homes for Sale Bill Travis (Remax Homes & Investments) 4 months ago

Comment #84- Jason- Your comment is right on the money, (pun intended.) While we as realtors tend to look at the immediate product, the house, the property- with the exception of the ones that are owned out fully with no loans- the banks are the problem along with the Federal Reserve and the gov't. i have done intensive research on this and until the banks are forced to stop the lies and accounting fraud- the mortgage backed securities will continue to be the ticking time bomb. We have to let if fall, we have to force the truth- it will be hard- but we are strong and we will get through it. Katerina

Posted by Nestor & Katerina Gasset Realtors® Wellington Florida Luxury Homes (International Properties and Investments, Inc.) 4 months ago

Yes! Isn't it ironic how BAD NEWS always outweighes GOOD NEWS?

I am proud to be one of the MANY people who have great equity in my home, and yes we make our payments on time, I am one of the 93% and proud of it!

Posted by BethAnn Long, Realtor, e-PRO Spokane Wa Real Estate (Coldwell Banker Tomlinson) 4 months ago

Fine.  Then we'll have a 93% recovery of the housing market. 

That 93% also includes a huge population of home owners who are prisoners of their mortgage loan.  They couldn't sell if they wanted to.

Hardly the American Dream

 

 

Posted by Lenn Harley, Real Estate Broker, Virginia & Maryland (Lenn Harley, Homefinders.com, MD & VA Homes and Real Estate) 4 months ago

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